There are forecasts of all types telling us what will happen to stocks over a one-year period and frankly, most of it is bunk. It's bunk because there are too many variables and too many unknowns to forecast with any real accuracy consistently. That’s not to say that forecasts aren’t useful. The trick is to use as many data points … Continue reading November Update, 2019: A Thought Experiment On Expected Future Stock Returns
In the wake of the 2019 Canadian federal election, our Chief Strategist John Johnston gives an overview of key implications and policy issues that are important for investors. Overview The election has resulted in a Liberal minority government - likely with NDP support - that should be stable enough to last at least two years. Fiscal policy is expected to remain relatively prudent. More federal deficits lie ahead, … Continue reading Canada’s Federal Election 2019: Key Implications
Ahead of the 2019 Canadian federal election, our Chief Strategist John Johnston gives an overview of potential election outcomes and key policy issues that are important for investors. Key Points The election is too close to call. Wide range of potential outcomes: Liberal or Conservative majority or minority governments. Canada has a long history of … Continue reading Canada’s Federal Election 2019: Potential Outcomes And Key Policy Issues
Recent reports have called into question the strength of the U.S. economy. As we wrote in our September update, we still put low odds on a recession over the next year. Most forecasters agree that healthy consumer spending, high savings rates, what appears to be full employment, and strong corporate profits support the U.S. domestic … Continue reading October Update, 2019: Volatility Is The Only Certainty
Financial planning is the act of defining your values, needs, and goals and designing a process to help you achieve them. A financial plan is essentially a roadmap for your money and your life. The goal of financial planning is to reduce your stress about money by optimizing for the things you can control and … Continue reading What Is Financial Planning?
As the summer slips away, most investors are eager to see some calm in the investment world. Between the trade war, Brexit, rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, negative interest rates, and worries of a recession, the news is getting monotonous. The only thing more predictable than the headlines is that the president of the … Continue reading September Update, 2019: History Repeats
We sold our Facebook, Inc. stock late last year because we could not quantify the growing political risks across the world from so many different countries. To us, the risks outweighed the huge profits Facebook was earning. We worried that some country could “turn off” Facebook because it was being used as a tool to … Continue reading Is Facebook Flying Too Close To The Sun?
We agree with Warren Buffett, banks are great investments. So why are people so pessimistic? Warren Buffett, who is probably the most successful long-term investor, says banks are great because they are “very good investments at sensible prices… and they are cheaper than other businesses that are also good businesses, by some margin.” He’s put … Continue reading Bank Stocks: Don’t Lose Sight Of Where The Value Lies
Markets have exhibited a great deal of volatility over the last two months. It has not been uncommon for markets to fall by 400 points one day, and to rebound by the same amount the next. There are various explanations for these violent swings, ranging from trade war concerns to recession worries that are mostly … Continue reading August Update, 2019: Summer Market Commentary
The trade war between the U.S. and China is on everyone’s radar but how important is it, really? Let’s be clear, in trade both parties should enjoy benefits and in war, there are no winners. So, in this war who is the biggest loser? Let’s look at the facts: The U.S. economy is roughly a … Continue reading Who’s The Biggest Loser In The U.S. And China Trade War?