At the time of my note on March 6th the S&P 500 was at 2,972 having fallen 13% from its record highs set only 12 business days previously. We said we were cashed up and ready to “feast.” The next 11 days saw the market fall an additional 781 points bringing the total collapse to … Continue reading May Update, 2020: Groundhog Day meets The Joker
The past month has seen unprecedented change and adjustment in almost every single person's life, on the planet as a whole. Covid-19 has changed the way we work, interact, shop, and do almost everything else. You have received dozens, if not more, e-mails from companies telling you what they are doing through this crisis and … Continue reading April Update, 2020: Staff Appreciation
When I was 25 years old, I had a bit less than two years of experience as a professional investor. On October 19, 1987, I received one of the most important lessons of my life: the stock market owes you nothing. And, if you demand it to give you a price on any given day for … Continue reading March Update, 2020: The Fox, The Chickens, And The Hen House
Our recent update giving our first take on the impact and seriousness of the Coronavirus ended with this advice: When trying to judge risks that have low probability, but potentially devastating impacts, it is wise to take action incrementally as the facts evolve. It appears that the authorities globally are taking proactive measures and while the deaths are … Continue reading February Update, 2020: The Economic Impact Of The Coronavirus
Another year in the books and the 2010s have slipped away with a quiet boom in equities. The next weeks will be full of stock market projections for the year and decade to come. We thought it would be fun to look back and give some basic observations of what has happened in the past … Continue reading January Update, 2020: What A Difference A Decade Makes
As we enter the holiday season and markets are in a far more pleasant mood than this time last year, it is easy to feel wealthier. But defining wealth is more nuanced than the value of your portfolio. It is the questions you ask yourself and others about what wealth means to you that are far more … Continue reading December Update, 2019: Are You Wealthy?
There are forecasts of all types telling us what will happen to stocks over a one-year period and frankly, most of it is bunk. It's bunk because there are too many variables and too many unknowns to forecast with any real accuracy consistently. That’s not to say that forecasts aren’t useful. The trick is to use as many data points … Continue reading November Update, 2019: A Thought Experiment On Expected Future Stock Returns
Recent reports have called into question the strength of the U.S. economy. As we wrote in our September update, we still put low odds on a recession over the next year. Most forecasters agree that healthy consumer spending, high savings rates, what appears to be full employment, and strong corporate profits support the U.S. domestic … Continue reading October Update, 2019: Volatility Is The Only Certainty
As the summer slips away, most investors are eager to see some calm in the investment world. Between the trade war, Brexit, rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, negative interest rates, and worries of a recession, the news is getting monotonous. The only thing more predictable than the headlines is that the president of the … Continue reading September Update, 2019: History Repeats
We sold our Facebook, Inc. stock late last year because we could not quantify the growing political risks across the world from so many different countries. To us, the risks outweighed the huge profits Facebook was earning. We worried that some country could “turn off” Facebook because it was being used as a tool to … Continue reading Is Facebook Flying Too Close To The Sun?