April Update, 2020: Staff Appreciation

The past month has seen unprecedented change and adjustment in almost every single person's life, on the planet as a whole. Covid-19 has changed the way we work, interact, shop, and do almost everything else. You have received dozens, if not more, e-mails from companies telling you what they are doing through this crisis and … Continue reading April Update, 2020: Staff Appreciation

March Update, 2020: The Fox, The Chickens, And The Hen House

When I was 25 years old, I had a bit less than two years of experience as a professional investor. On October 19, 1987, I received one of the most important lessons of my life: the stock market owes you nothing. And, if you demand it to give you a price on any given day for … Continue reading March Update, 2020: The Fox, The Chickens, And The Hen House

February Update, 2020: The Economic Impact Of The Coronavirus

Our recent update giving our first take on the impact and seriousness of the Coronavirus ended with this advice:   When trying to judge risks that have low probability, but potentially devastating impacts, it is wise to take action incrementally as the facts evolve. It appears that the authorities globally are taking proactive measures and while the deaths are … Continue reading February Update, 2020: The Economic Impact Of The Coronavirus

January Update, 2020: What A Difference A Decade Makes

Another year in the books and the 2010s have slipped away with a quiet boom in equities. The next weeks will be full of stock market projections for the year and decade to come. We thought it would be fun to look back and give some basic observations of what has happened in the past … Continue reading January Update, 2020: What A Difference A Decade Makes

November Update, 2019: A Thought Experiment On Expected Future Stock Returns

There are forecasts of all types telling us what will happen to stocks over a one-year period and frankly, most of it is bunk. It's bunk because there are too many variables and too many unknowns to forecast with any real accuracy consistently. That’s not to say that forecasts aren’t useful. The trick is to use as many data points … Continue reading November Update, 2019: A Thought Experiment On Expected Future Stock Returns

October Update, 2019: Volatility Is The Only Certainty

Recent reports have called into question the strength of the U.S. economy. As we wrote in our September update, we still put low odds on a recession over the next year. Most forecasters agree that healthy consumer spending, high savings rates, what appears to be full employment, and strong corporate profits support the U.S. domestic … Continue reading October Update, 2019: Volatility Is The Only Certainty