Our recent update giving our first take on the impact and seriousness of the Coronavirus ended with this advice: When trying to judge risks that have low probability, but potentially devastating impacts, it is wise to take action incrementally as the facts evolve. It appears that the authorities globally are taking proactive measures and while the deaths are … Continue reading February Update, 2020: The Economic Impact Of The Coronavirus
Another year in the books and the 2010s have slipped away with a quiet boom in equities. The next weeks will be full of stock market projections for the year and decade to come. We thought it would be fun to look back and give some basic observations of what has happened in the past … Continue reading January Update, 2020: What A Difference A Decade Makes
As we enter the holiday season and markets are in a far more pleasant mood than this time last year, it is easy to feel wealthier. But defining wealth is more nuanced than the value of your portfolio. It is the questions you ask yourself and others about what wealth means to you that are far more … Continue reading December Update, 2019: Are You Wealthy?
There are forecasts of all types telling us what will happen to stocks over a one-year period and frankly, most of it is bunk. It's bunk because there are too many variables and too many unknowns to forecast with any real accuracy consistently. That’s not to say that forecasts aren’t useful. The trick is to use as many data points … Continue reading November Update, 2019: A Thought Experiment On Expected Future Stock Returns
Recent reports have called into question the strength of the U.S. economy. As we wrote in our September update, we still put low odds on a recession over the next year. Most forecasters agree that healthy consumer spending, high savings rates, what appears to be full employment, and strong corporate profits support the U.S. domestic … Continue reading October Update, 2019: Volatility Is The Only Certainty
As the summer slips away, most investors are eager to see some calm in the investment world. Between the trade war, Brexit, rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, negative interest rates, and worries of a recession, the news is getting monotonous. The only thing more predictable than the headlines is that the president of the … Continue reading September Update, 2019: History Repeats
We sold our Facebook, Inc. stock late last year because we could not quantify the growing political risks across the world from so many different countries. To us, the risks outweighed the huge profits Facebook was earning. We worried that some country could “turn off” Facebook because it was being used as a tool to … Continue reading Is Facebook Flying Too Close To The Sun?
Walt Disney’s remake of The Lion King grossed $78.5 USD million on opening day, the biggest single-day gross for anything other than a Star Wars or Marvel movie. Pretty significant, and even more so on the heels of some disappointing second quarter results from Netflix. The two companies are often pitted against each other, especially now that Disney … Continue reading Disney vs. Netflix: Why We Own Disney
Every civilization had its own mythology, with mythical creatures that often sowed chaos. One of the more famous ones is the Hydra from Greek and Roman mythology. The Hydra had multiple heads (brains or ideas) and if you chopped off a head, two more would grow in its place. The Hydra was a tough beast, … Continue reading June Update, 2019: Hydra or Godzilla?
“There must be some way out of here said the joker to the thief.” -Bob Dylan By the time this note reaches you, China and the U.S. will have gone to the next level of self-destructive behaviour causing their citizens to pay more for each other’s respective goods and services. I’m sure if you read the … Continue reading May Update, 2019: Bull In A China Shop