There are forecasts of all types telling us what will happen to stocks over a one-year period and frankly, most of it is bunk. It's bunk because there are too many variables and too many unknowns to forecast with any real accuracy consistently. That’s not to say that forecasts aren’t useful. The trick is to use as many data points … Continue reading November Update, 2019: A Thought Experiment On Expected Future Stock Returns
Recent reports have called into question the strength of the U.S. economy. As we wrote in our September update, we still put low odds on a recession over the next year. Most forecasters agree that healthy consumer spending, high savings rates, what appears to be full employment, and strong corporate profits support the U.S. domestic … Continue reading October Update, 2019: Volatility Is The Only Certainty
As the summer slips away, most investors are eager to see some calm in the investment world. Between the trade war, Brexit, rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, negative interest rates, and worries of a recession, the news is getting monotonous. The only thing more predictable than the headlines is that the president of the … Continue reading September Update, 2019: History Repeats
We sold our Facebook, Inc. stock late last year because we could not quantify the growing political risks across the world from so many different countries. To us, the risks outweighed the huge profits Facebook was earning. We worried that some country could “turn off” Facebook because it was being used as a tool to … Continue reading Is Facebook Flying Too Close To The Sun?
Walt Disney’s remake of The Lion King grossed $78.5 USD million on opening day, the biggest single-day gross for anything other than a Star Wars or Marvel movie. Pretty significant, and even more so on the heels of some disappointing second quarter results from Netflix. The two companies are often pitted against each other, especially now that Disney … Continue reading Disney vs. Netflix: Why We Own Disney
Every civilization had its own mythology, with mythical creatures that often sowed chaos. One of the more famous ones is the Hydra from Greek and Roman mythology. The Hydra had multiple heads (brains or ideas) and if you chopped off a head, two more would grow in its place. The Hydra was a tough beast, … Continue reading June Update, 2019: Hydra or Godzilla?
“There must be some way out of here said the joker to the thief.” -Bob Dylan By the time this note reaches you, China and the U.S. will have gone to the next level of self-destructive behaviour causing their citizens to pay more for each other’s respective goods and services. I’m sure if you read the … Continue reading May Update, 2019: Bull In A China Shop
Stock markets around the world have entered the final stretches of the year in a foul mood. While fundamentals are the law in the investment business, the short run price action is all about confidence. Economic growth is strong. Corporate profits are at records. Confidence in the future is low. Markets always overreact to good … Continue reading December Update, 2018: The Story Remains The Same
Stock markets fall with a great deal more regularity than many care to believe. Sometimes falling markets reflect investors’ collective fear that profits will fall generally across the economy. The causes of fear can be varied but usually involve concerns of rising interest rates slowing the economy. At other times, political events, trade friction with other … Continue reading November Update, 2018: When Markets Fall
In 1980, your father’s government designed the National Energy Program (NEP). The goals of the policy as stated in the budget of 1980 were to be the "security of supply and ultimate independence from the world oil market; opportunity for all Canadians to participate in the energy industry; particularly oil and gas, and to share … Continue reading An Open Letter to Prime Minister Trudeau